H1B Visa 2014 Predictions for General Quota

Raghuram Sukumar H1B Visa 20 Comments

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Refer to following articles for H1B Visa FY 2014 ( Applications accepted from April 1, 2014)

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Following content is for last year (FY 2014) predictions, which will not be helpful for this year.

Around this time of the year I make H1B Visa 2014 Predictions for Masters  Degree cap and regular cap count.

I have used several factors in the past for H1b Visa quota predictions.

  • Blog Traffic Status
  • Economy and Recession
  • Unemployment Report
  • Number of Comments in Blog to H1B visa Articles

This year, I’m going to use just one way and source H1B predictions, which is Google Traffic.

Number of Days for H1B Cap to Ran Out in previous years.

  • 2009 – 265 ( for H1B Visa FY 2010 )
  • 2010 – 301 days ( for H1B Visa FY 2011 )
  • 2011 – 235 days  ( for H1B Visa FY 2012 )
  • 2012 – 72 days (for H1B Visa 2013 )
  • 2013 – How Many Days ( for H1B Visa 2014 )

Year 2009 : H1B Visa 2010

2009 – 265 ( for H1B Visa FY 2010 )

h1b visa 2009

Year 2010 : H1B Visa 2011

2010 – 301 days ( for H1B Visa FY 2011 )

h1b visa 2010

Year 2011 : H1B Visa 2012

2011 – 235 days  ( for H1B Visa FY 2012 )

h1b visa 2011

Year 2012 : H1B Visa 2013

2012 – 72 days (for H1B Visa 2013 )

h1b visa 2012

Now, you can see the patten of Google Search Traffic Volume vs Number of Days it took for H1B Visa cap to run out.

Observations to predict estimate when H1B Quota will be full

  • Spike in traffic in April
  • Spike in traffic when Cap is Full

Last year it took just 72 days for H1B Cap to be over and search volume for H1B Visa wasn’t even at 100.

Now, let’s look at H1B Visa Search volume for this year

H1B Visa 2014 Predictions – Masters and Regular

h1b visa 2014 predictions masters

Search volume for 2013 is already at 100.  This shows that interest for H1B 2014 cap  is very high.

Question : So how many h1b applications will be filed for 2014?

So, here is my H1B 2014 cap predictions – H1B Visa 2014 could run out before End of April 2013.

How about 2014 masters predictions?

I’m expecting about 30,000 applications for Masters degree.

Why?

  • High Search Volume compared to previous years
  • Improving Economy and Hiring
  • Decrease in Unemployment
  • Increase in number of students coming to USA

Bulk of H1B Visa application are typically filed by Indian IT Consulting Companies. It will be interesting to know the following facts

  • How many of such approved application are actually utilized
  • How long do they spend in USA
  • How many people end up applying for Green card

What do you think about H1B Visa predictions? Are you worried about H1B Visa cap being over before your employer will have a chance to file your application?

>> Next  – H1B Visa 2015 Predictions

Comments

  1. Raghu,

    Say that there are more than 100,000 applications for H1-B by April 5th; hence there will be atleast 15,000 applications that will not be accepted based on the lottery system. My question is will USCIS return all the visa fees to the companies that applied for these 15000?

    I ask this to understand if companies bare a cost(other than the lawyer fees ofcourse) even if they loose out due to the random lottery.

  2. Hi Raghu – I have 6 yrs exp and working on L1 visa. Applying H1 this year through consultant. But they told that education evaluation not needed. please advice .. is it mandatory?

    1. i have completed B.E ..( 4 yrs).. pls advice if evaluation is needed when converting frm L1 to H1

  3. Hi Raghuram —

    A small flaw in the above analysis based off of google traffic trends — Google trends shows normalized values. In this sense, whatever time-frame you choose, 100 will be the highest search interest during that time-frame. The graph for April 2013 is then meaningless while comparing to earlier years. Including previous years in the time-frame gives you an idea about how the recent search interest compare to previous years’.

  4. My son got an offer from campus selection this year.. He is in the 8th semester.. His result will come only by May end.. Whether the employer can apply for H1-B visa by April, since all the 8th semester result is not available.

    Any alternate supporting documents can be provided from college ,hence employer can file for H1-B.

    1. Your son is in a good position. Tell him to avail CPT (Curricular Practical Training) for first one year. After 8 months, he should apply for OPT which will be valid for one year and it can be renewed for another 17 months. It is good to use those options before H1 as there are advantages. But if you really want to go with H1, it may be too late as you have to apply for LCA. But for degree, ask your son to get a letter from graduate school stating that he will graduate in May. If he is writing thesis, letter from department chair and committee is also helpful. Good Luck!

  5. Hi,
    i stayed in US from 2007-2009 and 2010-2012 on L1 Visa , i returned to india on May 1st 2012 , and planning to apply H1 this year on Apr , but by April i ll be only completing 11 months in india , will i be getting complete 3 year H1 when i apply

    Thanks

  6. Hey Raghu,

    I am in almos total agreement with the analysis, though I feel it may take upto mid may for the quota to fill up. (That’s my gut feeling though)

  7. Hi Raghu,
    I am currently on H4 Visa and Planning to file for H1B this year.

    1. Can we apply for H1B visa with 2 employers at the same time/simultaneously?

    2. In case, If I apply for H1 with the Company A on a Premium processing, If it gets approved well and good, If not, Is it possible to apply again with another Company B(If the quota still exists) or do I have to wait for next year ?

    Thanks
    Shree

    1. Hello Shree,

      I am on h4 too. Did you convince an employer to sponsor your h1b or are you joining a consultancy. can you please help.really appreciate your feedback.

    2. Hi Raghu,
      Why you have to spend unnecessarily by filing two H1? The USCIS gets flooded when we have many candidates thinking like you. Multiple applications will not present you any better if your profile wasn’t good enough. I don’t even know how you can get two companies to apply H1 for you unless those companies are consultants or fraud. Normally, in real companies, if you tell the HR that you are filing another H1 by another company, that is something they will freak out. Because there is no reason for someone to apply for you when your company is giving all the packages for you (salary, dental, health, vacation, training, infrastructure, travel etc). To be honest, if I tell like this to my company, they will cancel my H1 application and kick me out immediately and that is the fact if you are with real company. Neither I ll do such thing. You are just killing one spot. I really hate the bulk applications from IT consultants in India. They are killing many opportunities of bright students here. Getting H1 will not guarantee your entry to US. Many are caught at stamping and denied and those spots are just wasted. So, prepare well and think wisely. You will never fall down if you have faith in yourself and trust yourself in the first place.

  8. Hi Raghu,
    I completed my Bachelor of Engineering in 2012 from India with 8.6GPA and right now I am pursuing Post Graduate Wireless Telecomm. from Canada which will complete in Aug 2013. And one of the US Employer is ready to fill my petition for H1B 2014 quota. So can I initiate my process for H1b without a work experience and if I can then can I schedule my interview from Canada or I have to go to my home country to apply for H1B?

    1. @Priyank says:
      February 28, 2013 at 12:04 PM
      Can you please share your employer details. I am also a postgraduate in computer applications and looking for a H1B sponser. Your reply is highly appreciated.

      1. Hi Shamini,
        Are you in US ?
        I can’t share my employer details right now until I they start my H1b process because its not confirm yet.
        I think Raghu can answer your query on how to search for Employers for H1b if you share your profile and interest.
        Thanks.
        Post your reply if you have any idea about my case….

        1. Hi Shamini,
          Are you in US ?
          I can’t share my employer details right now until they start my H1b process because its not confirm yet.
          I think Raghu can answer your query on how to search for Employers for H1b if you share your profile and interest.
          Thanks.
          Post your reply if you have any idea about my case….

  9. Hi Raghu,
    I completed my Engineering in Bio-technology field but have been working as an IT professional with a reputed IT Company for the past three years. This year my company plans to initiate my H1 B Visa. I would like to know if my visa can still be approved even if I do not possess an IT-equivalent degree? Are there some US agencies which perform education evaluation in such cases? How much time is needed for such evaluations and how fruitful are such evaluations?

    1. Hi Flavia, Considering your concern visa should not be a problem. You do meet the requisites for the H1B visa. Yes there are agencies such as WES, ECE evaluating educational credentials. Time required for the evaluation depends on which service you avail. Usually it should not take more than 15 days. For safe side initiate the process with a month in hand.

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