54% Less H1B Visa FY 2011 Applications Expected?

Raghuram Sukumar H1B Visa 5 Comments

H1B visa 2011 season started on April 1, 2010. It’s very hard to estimate the total number of H1B petitions that will be submitted during first 5 business days of April.  By comparing traffic to Happy Schools Blog’s H1B Visa related posts for April 1 to April 3 of 2009 and 2010 should shed some light and do an estimation of actual demand.

We have the data for last year and by comparing the traffic, we can predict the number of H1 visa application submitted to USCIS.

We use Google Analytics to track blogs traffic statistics along with few other tracking software.

Comparison parameters

  • High H1B visa demand = More visitors searching for H1B visa
  • Comparison Dates : April 1 to April 3 of 2009 and 2010
  • Data : H1B visa related blogs posts only.

H1B Visa 2011 – Quota Numbers

Results Observation

  • Blue Line shows H1B Visa related page views for April 1 to April 3, 2010
  • Green Line shows H1B Visa related page views for April 1 to April 3, 2009
  • Difference of 53.98% less number of pageviews for April 1 to April 3, 2010

H1B Visa  2010 Cap

Referring to H1B Cap Updates 2010 Table we can see that during first 5 business days of April 2009 USCIS received.

Click here to learn about H1B Visa FY 2012 fiscal year, cap count and updates.

  • 42,000 petitions in General Cap
  • 20,000 H1 petitions in Masters Degree Cap

H1B Cap Numbers Estimation for 2011

  • 54% less H1B traffic
    • General Cap – 19,320
    • Masters Degree Cap – 9200

Lets add more theory and parameters to above numbers.

People searching for H1B visa related blog post will belong to one of the following category

  1. Applied for H1B visa 2011
  2. Tried to apply, but couldn’t find an employer (IT Job shops)
  3. Other curious minds interested to know about H1B Cap

Applying Parameters

  • Persons who applied for H1 Visa should have definitely searched for H1B Visa updates (100%)
  • Lets give a percentage of 30% to Category 2 and 3.
  • Subtract another 30% of the blog traffic will give another estimate of expected H1B Visa petitions submitted to USCIS.

What do you think about the comparison? Do you agree to above comparison? If not what more parameters do you like to add to get a estimate?

Comments

  1. From my understanding, this probably has not taken into account, the IT consulting companies in India like Wipro,Infosys,TCS,CTS that simply collect H1-bs. Here the employees would not really be bothered about checking status.

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