# EB2 to EB3 Downgrade and Rapid Forward Movement Explained Based on October 2020 Visa Bulletin

I hope to answer the following questions about EB2 to EB3 downgrade and Rapid forward movement from the October 2020 Visa Bulletin.

1. How will Visa Numbers be allocated for EB4, EB5, EB1, EB2, and EB3?
2. My Priority Date in 2009 – Should I downgrade from EB2 to EB3?
3. My Priority Date in 2010 – Should I downgrade from EB2 to EB3?
4. My Priority Date in 2011 – Should I downgrade from EB2 to EB3?
5. My Priority Date in 2012 – Should I downgrade from EB2 to EB3?
6. My Priority Date is in 2013 and later – Should I downgrade from EB2 to EB3?
7. What is Rapid Forward Movement mean for EB2 and EB3 from the Visas Bulletin?

I have been answering the same questions from friends repeatedly in the past couple of weeks. I told them that I haven’t looked at the data to give a concrete answer. Now, I have gotten around to that; let’s dig deeper.

Here’s my attempt to help you understand how EB Visa numbers will move and play put in 2020 and 2021.

We will be talking number and doing simple math (additions and subtractions along with percentage) along with assumptions.

Assumptions are for prediction for the upcoming Rapid Forward Movement.

If you are a newbie to this process, I would recommend you to start reading the Green Card Articles series below.

Q1. How Employment Green Cards do US issues per year?

A total of 140,000 Green Card are issued per year for Employment-based Categories that include EB1, EB2, EB3, EB4, and EB5.

Q2. How many EB Green Cards available for FY 2021?

As per the October 2020 Visa Bulletin, 261,500 Employment-Based Green Cards are available (about 121,500 more than the previous years).

Q3. How will the extra visa numbers be allocated or issued (generally)?

The following tables show Annual Numerical Limits for Employment-Based Green Card from FY 2018.

Q4. How are the EB Visa Numbers allocation changing for FY 2021?

We don’t have the data (just like the above table) from the Department of State for FY 2021. But, I’m applying the 28.6 and 7.1% allocation to calculate as follows.

Now, you have the answer to question 1 – How Visa Numbers will be allocated for EB4, EB5, EB1, EB2, and EB3?

If you assumed that additional EB numbers would be given just to EB2 and EB3, sorry to disappoint you!

Q5. How many EB2 and EB3 Indian Nationals are in the backlog?

If USCIS published a pending I-485 inventory, our calculation would be straightforward and simple.

Unfortunately, we data we have is only from July 2018. It doesn’t do any good to predict the expected Rapid Forward Movement.

But, we do have access to approved I-140 data from Nov 2019 and the multiplier factor. Plus, Cato institute has done the backlogs calculations based on that data.

They have combined EB2 and EB3 for a total of 706,097. If it were split, it would be approximately (I know the count is off)

• EB2 India = 568,414
• EB3 India = 139,350

Q6. How does this number help to estimate the backlog and Final Action Data movements?

1. Pending I-485 inventory data from July 2018 (See Here)
2. Approved I-140 number per month from 2009 to 2019 (See Here)

By using the approved I-140 data, we can estimate the expected I-485.

### Estimated I-485 for 2010 to 2019

How did I estimate the above data?

• USCIS published Approved I-140 by year from 2009 to 2019
• USCIS gave the Dependents Multiplier (1.0 for EB2 and 1.1 for EB3)

Q7. Should you downgrade from EB2 to EB3?

To answer the above questions, you need to understand the spillover for EB numbers.

Between EB Numbers

• Unused EB4 Goes to EB5
• Unused EB5 goes to EB1
• Unused EB1 goes to EB2
• Unused EB2 goes to EB3
• Unused Rest of the Word within each category will go to Most Backlogged Country.

Case 1: There is no spillover for EB2 India (from EB1)

Assuming there is no spillover from EB1 to EB2 (also, no spillover from EB5 to EB1).

For FY 2021, EB2 will get 74,789 Visa numbers.

Here are the previous year’s number for India (Courtesy of my Friend)

FY 2019:

• EB2 India = 2,908
• Total = 40,052

FY 2021: (Case 1)

• Total = 74,798
• Difference = 74,798 – 40,052 = 34,746
• Assumption (China, South Korea, and ROW uses the same numbers as the previous year)

In this case, EB2 Indian National should theoretically get about additional 34,746 additional EB2 Visa Numbers (Yay!).

FY 2021: (Case 2)

• 5235 (China) + 5235 (South Korea) = 10470
• 74789 – 10470 = 64319
• If ROW uses 40,000, then 64319 – 40000 = 24319 for India

In this case, EB2 Indian National should theoretically get about additional 24,746 additional EB2 Visa Numbers (Yay!).

Based on Table 3 and 4 (Pending I-485) for Case 1:

• 2009 = 10,831 (From Table 3)
• 2010 = 30,626 (From Tabel 4)

Usage of Visa Numbers for Case 1:

• For 2009
• 5,235 from Regular 7% (Table 2)
• 5,596 (from 34,746)
• For 2010
• 29,150 is available for use in 2010.

For Case 1: By the end of FY 2021, the Final Action date for EB2 India could move to the end of 2010.

For Case 2: By the end of FY 2021, the Final Action date for EB2 India could move to the Q3 of 2010.

What if there is spillover fro, EB1 to EB2 India?

Case 2: There is a spillover from EB1 to EB2 India

I really don’t think there will be a spillover from EB1 to EB2.

Yes. Seriously.

• Estimated EB1 India Backlog = 73,487 (Cato Institue Table)
• Total Expected EB1 Visa Avaiablity =  74,789

If there were any spillover, it would be very minimal (like 1,000).

So, I’m not doing the calculation for EB1 to EB2 Spillover.

Case 3: No Spillover, but EB2 to EB3 Downgrade Creates Movement

This is a real possibility, but very hard to predict how many applicants are downgrading.

You have to do the math and decide based on say 25,000, 50,000 and 75,000 folks downgrading and how the date will move for EB2 based on that.

• If 25,000 = Then the Final Action date could move to Mid 2011
• If 50,000 = Then the Final Action date could move to Q1 of 2012
• If 75,000 = Then the Final Action date could move to Mid 2013

These scenarios will make you contemplate if you have to go for EB2 to EB3 downgrade.

I think if your PD is after Mid 2013 or later – the option, is quite clear.

For folks with a Priority date before Mid-2013, you have a really tough decision to make.

• Why do you need EAD?
• Would you continue to maintain your underlying visa status?
• Are you willing to take the risk of USCIS decisions?

I am talking to attorneys to get a feel for an estimated downgrade number. In meantime, you have to explore and think about downgrading.

Q8. Should I downgrade from EB2 to EB3 for India?

Here’s what I’m thinking:

• 2009 – You don’t have to
• 2010 – Don’t (Date should move by end of FY 2021)
• 2011 – Maybe (Date movement based on Downgrades)
• 2012 – Maybe (Date movement based on Downgrades)
• 2013 – Stretch (Date movement based on Downgrades)

But, don’t take any of my words. Downgrading from EB 2 to EB3 is not something you should decide after reading this analysis. But, talk to your Immigration Attorney and figure out if it makes sense to downgrade for your family’s needs.

I can see one-way the Final Action Date may not go all the way into 2011 if there is a demand from the Rest of the world category. I don’t see that from the numbers. But, I will continue to review these numbers and make updates.

So, what questions do you have for me?

## Similar Posts

1. Sundar says:

Hi,

Appreciate your analysis. I felt you analysis more closer than other (different blogs). Could you please update your estimation now for EB2 and EB3 . Please take Visa Officer interview in to consideration.

1. Raghuram Sukumar says:

Sure. I will write an analysis, but it will be sometime towards the end of April/May.

1. Suri says:

Thank you so much for taking the time and providing another follow up on the EB data movements. Can you please add visa number wastages when crunching numbers?

2. johny says:

Hi Raghu,
Do you have plans to post your analysis and predictions on priority date movements for EB2/EB3 post 2021 spillover?

2. AKB says:

My EB2 PD is 07/19/2011. Still with same employer. My kid will age out in next six months. Shall I downgrade to EB3 or wait in EB2? Need your valuable suggestion. Please advise.

1. Siraj S says:

Your EB2 PD is same as mine. You can use formula to calculate CPSA(Children Status Protection Act) age = Age on date visa becomes available(final action date) – number of days I-140 was pending . Filing date becoming current for I-485 does not mean anything to protect children’s status. You should look for transferring to F1 status.

3. Kishore says:

Will there be a spillover next year as well. I don’t see any movement in Oct and Nov FB PD dates?

4. Mohan Sathya says:

Hi, I have two questions. My PD March 2013. Should I downgrade. What’s your thought on downgrade EB2 Amendment to EB3 downgrade and concurrent i485 filing. My plan is to use EAD and AP.
I work as a consultant with a small company(5 Employees). But my employer is not willing to file downgrade and concurrent i485 filing. Because of the “Ability to Pay” question. He thinks that it will impact all employees and his company. Is there anything that can overcome this issue?

5. Sal says:

So for people with priority date on 2016 should safely go ahead and downgrade to EB3 from EB2c

6. SK says:

EB2I with PD March 10 2010 – Do you recommend to downgrade to EB3? Already have EAD/AP.

When do you expect it to become current in EB2I? In EB3I, it is more or less expected in the Dec 2020 visa bulletin to become current.

1. Raghuram Sukumar says:

01MAR10 (Nov 2020 VB for EB3 India). This could become current in Dec or Jan 2020 VB.
22SEP09 (Nov 2020 VB for EB2 India). This could also move with downgrades. Since you have EAD/AP, why take the risk to downgrade?

7. Sushil Goel says:

Great analysis with limited data available. A question on EB1. Now EB1 final action date in Nov bulletin has moved to 1 Dec 2018. My EB13 PD is 18 Feb 2020 ans AOS has just been submitted. When do you see Feb 2020 PD date getting approved. Not sure if you or anybody else on forum knows, what (and if I can) decide to switch to new employer in next 2 months. My I140 approval will be more than 180 days old but AOS will only be 2 months old. Any suggestions/comments.

8. VIKAS SHARMA says:

Can you pls do analysis for EB3 numbers when you get a chance, it will be of great help. THANKS IN ADVANCE.

9. Yogi Bear says:

Excellent analysis and appreciate you posting this. My priority date is EB2-India Sep 2011. Would you recommend to downgrade just for EAD or would you recommend to see Final Action Dates for EB3 to be current for my priority date and then apply 485 ?

10. Reddy says:

My PD is Mid Aug 2011 in EB2. I have valid H1B till 2014 Jan and i have applied for EB2 to EB3 downgrade. I have no plans to use EAD/AP. Due to the recent change in H1b on specialty occupation i doubt my next extension will succeed ( civil engineer working in IT ). My backup plan to use the employers tuition reimbursement program to complete MS in information science before my next extension. I would really appreciate if you can share the probability in getting GC in either EB2 or EB3 before my next extension with is 2014 Jan.

1. Raghuram Sukumar says:

Studying IT with tuition reimbursement is a great idea. Go for it, it will help with Speciality Occupation.

11. Kanna says:

Hi, for EB2 June 2014, when do you think EAD atleast possible. Based on trackers i could see that my waiting line number is around 25000. With spillovers i could see by 2026 atleast EAD possible.

Can you please give ball park. If i downgrade to EB3 I feel 2024 it could be possible for june 2014 priority date

1. Raghuram Sukumar says:

I would downgrade it if EAD is required. EB2 movement for 2015 is possible only if USCIS thinks they can get income from fling dates. Else I don’t see DOS would move it.

1. kanna says:

Thanks Raghu, i moved to new company last year and they just started PERM. with embassies closed for another coupe of months, FY 2022 will also have spill over with that for EB2 june 2014 is there possibility for EAD ? till 2014 in EB2 we have around 50k+ , out of that say 30k downgrade to EB3, next year only those will be in EB3 as current EB3 folks will be cleared by that time. i am thinking in that angle and going to ask my lawyer to file in EB3 once PERM done.

1. Raghuram Sukumar says:

EV2 – 2014 – Depends on the number of spillovers. Plus, a new admin. We have to see how they will handle the Visa Processings.

12. Kumar says:

Can you please post a similar analysis for EB3 too?

13. Amrish says:

Hi,

you talked about no Spillover coming to EB-2 from EB-1. or at max of 1000. but how about EB-4 and EB-5, which are getting additional 8,000 each. Those should spillover to EB-1 and hence to EB-2. if EB-1 will be current with 75,000 number.

1. Raghuram Sukumar says:

EB5 China is backlogged for like 15 years 🙂

All the spillover from EB4 should be consumed with China.

1. Amrish says:

Looks like EB-2 will have better chance Next year if things remain same.

14. Ram says:

My PD is Nov, 2011 in EB2, do you recommend EB3 downgrade?

15. lucerne says:

the family multiplier is too less. Assume at least 1.5 to 2.0. the factor 1.0 and 1.1 is absurd in today’s time. most people getting GC for PD of 2010 and 2011, 2012 are already married and settled. please be realistic.

1. Raghuram Sukumar says:

WE can go by what USCIS has given. Folks who surround me, I see a multiplier of 1 is good. Most of them have kids born here. So, it’s either spouse counts as 1.

16. Janide says:

First of all I would like to Thank you for spending your valuable time on Analysis and providing number of probabilities. Kudos to you! My question is very basic, I think I just got little confuse. What you mean by “ PD is after Mid 2013 or later – the option, is quite clear”.
Does it mean that those folks should go for eb3 downgrade (of course on their own situation and risk)?
Thank you for looking into very basic question.

1. Raghuram Sukumar says:

Yes. That’s what I meant 🙂

17. Suraj says:

I have a question if you can offer your insights. My date is April 2010 EB2 & hopefully I should be cleared with a spillover. But how long do you think April 2010 might take to clear with no spillovers coming at all (due to whatever reason/act/bill)?

1. Raghuram Sukumar says:

It depends on how DOS decided to move the dates. They could use month by month, or Q/Q or semi-monthly or move Aug/Sep. So, I would say – this FY.

18. ajay says:

Any chance that the EB3 filing dates will move beyond Jan 2015 in the coming months for India.

My priority date is Sep 2nd, 2015 eb3

1. Raghuram Sukumar says:

I think it will not. I have to do a similar analysis for EB3.

19. RK says:

Thank you for the nice Analysis. Though I still have this question unanswered or I might have missed from your detailed explanation.. Request to please clarify this
Does EB3 dates move only if there is spill over from EB2 or is there any percentage of numbers allocated to EB3?

1. Raghuram Sukumar says:

I don’t see a way for spillover from EB2 to EB3. All EB3 will from EB3 ROW to EB3 India.

20. AB says:

It’s just unfair on those waiting on EB3 to be now bumped into by EB2. This is bloody crap of a rule. EB3 are not idiots to be waiting there for years and now suddenly being outsmarted by EB2. USCIS should ban downgrades, or atleast make them re-apply. We have families too to take care of!

1. Raghuram Sukumar says:

EB3 folks would have done the same if EB2 was moving fast 🙂

1. AP says:

They did it in 2012 and that’s why folks like having PD of June-2011 are still waiting after 9 yrs.

2. Debarshi Kar says:

That is not unfair, it is kind of the same. The bulk applications in EB2 are all those who moved from EB3 to EB2 earlier.

21. Srini says:

Great analysis Raghu and spot-on on many aspects.
For a PD 2014 Aug, whats your thought on downgrade to EB3 and concurrent 485 filing. I have no intention to use EAD or AP.

1. Raghuram Sukumar says:

EB2 – 2014 is going to take a long time (even for Filing Chart to move). There are inherent advantages to EAD. I would downgrade.

1. vkn says:

Raghu – When do you feel filing chart will move for EB2 June 2014, based on the https://immigrationroad.com/green-card-tracker.php, my waiting list is around 25000. If I add family members roughly I will be in 50000 position, out of which 30K roughly will be cleared in FY 2021 for Eb2 and the i485 pending inventory is at last updated in 2018. so approx. another 3k we can reduce. so overall 50000 – 30000 – 3000 => 17000. In normal phase to clear 17000 would take another 5 to 6 years.

Say some EB or Family spill over happens hear and there in upcoming years , roughly by 2024 or 2025 can we expect at least EAD for 2014 PD.

22. Prem says:

My PD is June 3 2011 EB2. I am in process of downgrading just not for EAD but in the anticipation of a faster Green Card in EB3 based on a read somewhere that the spill over to most backlogged country is equally divided among all EB categories by law. Is that a fact?

1. Raghuram Sukumar says:

Spillover is applied per category (Eb4 > 5 > 1 > 2 > 3) then Horizontal within each category. EB3 India is Jan 2010 (vs Sep 2009 for EB2). So, It’s hard to say how many EB3 will be applied with this. It’s tough to predict EB3 will have faster movement. What if Eb2 to EB3 downgraded creates faster Final Action Date movement? Plus, you are so close.

1. vk says:

Raghu, you are talking about 2021 fiscal year spill over (Eb4 > 5 > 1 > 2 > 3) correct? Because family based spill over will be used to each (a count of 37k) So don’t you think EB3 will move beyond 2011 June final action dates?

1. Raghuram Sukumar says:

Assumption – Worst-Case – Everyone on EB2 from 2010 and 2011 downgrades to EB3 + 1250 New I-485 per month for EB3. So, math for EB3 movement will depend on this.

23. Varun says:

BTW a typo on your calcs. is it 74,798 or is it 74,789? number differs in case 1 vs case 2.

24. Varun says:

Interesting post, and good analysis. Thanks for sharing it with us.

the downgrade point – 25k/50k/75k – one has to also consider what is the vintage year for those downgrades. if late 2013/2014/early 2015 folks downgrade in mass, it makes no difference to the analysis of FAD moving to Dec 2010.

If I had to model this, I would take a different approach. I would put a factor on the % of people eligible who can downgrade (coming up with that factor is a separate modeling exercise), and then multiply that factor with vintage year to see how many people would actually go out of queue at specific positions.

One should then also model EB3 priority dates for the sheer beauty of statistics, oh and for website views. Yeah, website views.

1. Raghuram Sukumar says:

My skills extent as far as this article goes. Modeling – If you want to try, I’m happy to publish 🙂

25. Karnakalli says:

My pd is 25th June 2011 EB2 India, i am so confused about moving to EB3. Plz let me know your openion. my current decision is to wait on EB2.

26. Muthu says:

Excellent analysis Raghuram. I think this is the best we can predict with the available data. Hope and which they reconsider publishing I-485 inventory data again…

27. Sudhamsu says:

My PD is 30th Dec 2009 (EB2). Do you think the date will be current in November/December?

28. va says:

Hi this is great analysis!!

I have a question regarding ROW using 40K visas. For fiscal 2019 65K I-140 were approved worldwide. Of those 9K were Chinese and 41.5K for India. So combined its 50.5K . So rest of the world was 15K and adding dependents it would be 30K for ROW. Given the COVID situation it might be even lower for fiscal ’20 and ’21.

So going with the calculation in case 1) EB2I would get 75K-30K = 45k and in case 2) EB2I would get 75K-30K- 10K(China and SK) = 35K.

The other thing you missed is the data from USCIS is based on fiscal year and not calendar year. So oct 2009-sep 2010 would come under 2010. So you don’t consider 2009 as it from Oct 2008- to Sep 2009. Since Sep 2020 bulletin was already at Jul2009 for EB2I, we only must consider two months and that would be around 2K.

For fiscal 2010 (till Sep 2010) it 30.6K. So for case 1) assuming we have 45k visas for EB2I it would be
45k – 2K (fiscal ’09) – 30K (fiscal ’10) = 13K

So assuming around 3.6K for each month of fiscal ’11 would reach approx. 3.5 months into the fiscal year. So it would be Jan ‘11

For case 2) at 35K visas it would be Oct ’10. So according to my calculation these would might be FAD by Sep ‘21

If 45K visas for EB2I -> Jan ’11
If 35K visas for EB2I -> Oct ’10
If 25K visas (using your calculation) -> June/July ‘10
What this might not consider is any attrition in I-140 applications, reduction in usage from ROW for fiscal ’21, SO from EB1.

I think it would be best case scenario if it reaches May ’11 by Sep ’21 bulletin.

Let me know if you anything wrong with this. Thanks!!

29. Akkhi says:

My PD is nov 2014 EB2 , should I downgrade to Eb3 or not confused. Please advise.

30. Tarun says:

Thanks. Looking forward for that. Always interesting to read your analysis and point of view.

31. Ram says:

I ‘ve EB2 i-140 with priority date of Nov-2011, do you recommend downgrading to EB3?

32. Palan says:

My PD is Sep 2011 EB2. The analysis you have provided and the Best/Worst cases are informative. What do you think about keeping the filing dates and USCIS honoring the filing date filing in the coming bulletins ? For folks who could not downgrade for whatever reason, it might help them.

33. salil says:

Thanks for the analysis. I understand applicants have multiple I-140s but we can not account for that. My PD is EB2 India August end 2011.

Why would EB2 before mid May 2011 downgrade to EB3 when it will take long time to process downgrade and is not completely risk free unless difference in FAD between 2 categories increase more than what it is at present? What’s your thought on that?

EB3 must not be that crowded as most of them have upgraded to EB2 otherwise EB3 filing dates won’t move to 2015 compared to 2011.

It seems every year for last 4 years EB3 India has been receiving couple of thousand GCs more than EB2 based on your table above.

Based on all this, should EB2 India August end 2022 downgrade to EB3 and may get GC sooner?

Thanks.

1. Vikas S says:

in my opinion wait for Nov Bulletin.

34. Feb2013 says:

If people downgrade from eb2 to eb3, then how dates for eb2 will move because when people are downgrading their eb2 I-140 is still valid and they can always file i-145 with eb2. So how will uscis know to moves dates of eb2 based on downgrades ?

35. KishoreK says:

Great analysis!

Question: My priority date is June 30- 2011 EB2. have following questions-

– Shall I downgrade to EB3?
-Shall I wait for EB2 dates to become current, I missed by 45days?
-Do you think getting ‘Greened’ for June Priority date will be faster for EB3 than for EB2?

36. joy says:

Thanks for all the effort!

My PD is Dec 2009 – EB2 India … Do you think it will be current in November or December?

37. Dhanu says:

My PD is June-1-2011 EB2. Is it worth downgrading ?

38. va says:

Hi this is great analysis!!
I have a question regarding ROW using 40K visas. For fiscal 2019 65K I-140 were approved worldwide. Of those 9K were Chinese and 41.5K for India. So combined its 50.5K . So rest of the world was 15K and adding dependents it would be 30K for ROW. Given the COVID situation it might be even lower for fiscal ’20 and ’21.

So going with the calculation in case 1) EB2I would get 75K-30K = 45k and in case 2) EB2I would get 75K-30K- 10K(China and SK) = 35K.

The other thing you missed is the data from USCIS is based on fiscal year and not calendar year. So oct 2009-sep 2010 would come under 2010. So you don’t consider 2009 as it from Oct 2008- to Sep 2009. Since Sep 2020 bulletin was already at Jul2009 for EB2I, we only must consider two months and that would be around 2K.

For fiscal 2010 (till Sep 2010) it 30.6K. So for case 1) assuming we have 45k visas for EB2I it would be
45k – 2K (fiscal ’09) – 30K (fiscal ’10) = 13K .

So assuming around 3.6K for each month of fiscal ’11 would reach approx. 3.5 months into the fiscal year. So it would be Jan ‘11

For case 2) at 35K visas it would be Oct ’10. So according to my calculation these would might be FAD by Sep ‘21

If 45K visas for EB2I  Jan ’11
If 35K visas for EB2I  Oct ’10
If 25K visas (using your calculation)  June/July ‘10
What this might not consider is any attrition in I-140 applications, reduction in usage from ROW for fiscal ’21, SO from EB1.

I think it would be best case scenario if it reaches May ’11 by Sep ’21 bulletin.

Let me know if you anything wrong with this. Thanks!!

39. Kumar says:

Good Information. Thanks.
You might need to fix the title to EB2 to EB3 downgrade.

1. Raghuram Sukumar says:

Done. Thanks!

40. GC Aspirant says:

Great analysis. Appreciate the effort you have put out in helping the community. My PD is Nov 2011 in EB2. I am taking collective feedback from different attorneys and the majority tell me to wait for a few bulletins to come out for making a downgrade decision. What would your advice be to a person at and around my PDs? Do you anticipate Filing Dates to advance as well besides Final Action Dates? Thanks.

41. Raghu says:

I have an EB2 I priority date of Dec 15 2009 , what are the chances that the FAD will hit my PD this year ?

My priority date is May 23 2011 EB2. Do you think filling date for EB2 will move beyond 2011 May in next couple of bulletins? Also, do i need to downgrade to EB3 as soon as possible?

43. Umesh says:

My priority is Oct 3 2011, but due to wage requirement i am thinking to downgrade, please advice what should i do ?

44. RR says:

Hi,
I have PD of Nov 2011 in EB2 from my old employer. I applied perm with my new employer in June 2020 and awaiting the response.
1) Would you know how long it may take to get my perm approval?
2) Given that i have an opportunity now to pick either Eb2 or EB3, would you suggest me to pick EB3?

45. Praveen says:

Hi Raghuram,

My EB2 I priority date is July 10th, 2010. Based on your analysis if Miller allows all the visas to be utilized for EB. How many months can I expect my EAD and GC if I am filing it this month.

Request you to please provide your inputs. Btw, Excellent analysis regarding the spill over and visa allocation. Haven’t seen anything until now this transparent.

46. Santosh Ankush says:

47. honeylocust says:

Is it worth downgrading from eb2 to eb3 for July 2011 PD ?

1. Prashant says:

Same boat. July 2011 PD. Any thoughts.
The company said they will support downgrade but won’t pay.
If I go ahead and downgrade on my own cost and my PD moves in this week, it’s my loss!

2. Srini says:

My PD is 2014.? Absolutely no plans to use EAD or AP immediately.
Is it worth downgrading to Eb3 now and get into the GC wait queue?

1. Raghuram Sukumar says:

I know someone who got EAD from 2007! And it took 12 more years to actually get GC in Hand. He got laid off a few times. EAD really helped him.

48. Suraj says:

Thanks for the analysis. Is there any chance that the spillover numbers for FY2021 can actually be rolled back? Are the numbers allocated yet to FY21? I read somewhere that it take about a month after the start of the fiscal for the spillover numbers to be applied. How likely is it for the spillover numbers to be rolled back at this point due to some new bill/Act getting passed.

1. Raghuram Sukumar says:

Only Mr.Miller knows the answer if they want to give all these GC to EB.

49. SR says:

My PD is 01/2011 EB2I. Do you think I might get GC in the next 1 year?

1. Raghuram Sukumar says:

You could apply for GC in FY 2021. Getting GC in Hand could take a while. I-485 is taking about 15 months. EAD is like 6 months. So, Best Case: Apply for I-485 by Sep 2021 and EAD in 6months to 12 months after that, plus GC after that.

1. SR says:

Thank You very much!! Hope FAD will reach early to mid 2011 for EB2 I in FY21.

50. NSom says:

My PD is Nov : Is there a probability to have my FAD current in the next 2 years? Like end of 2022. Have an important decision to make accordingly?

1. Raghuram Sukumar says:

NOV of what year?

51. Satish says:

Estimated EB1 India Backlog = 73,487
What’s the source for this number?

1. Raghuram Sukumar says:

1. Manoj says:

I believe 73,487 EB1 India backlog is no longer true, since majority of them (~20,000)+ might have got greened in Sep 2020 as there was very less demand for Immigration from ROW due to COVID situation. Also, for USCIS FY 2021 the ROW demand might be less in EB1 which might spill over to EB1 India and potentially some spill over to EB2 India.

2. Satish Sompalli says:

EB1 India approvals by FY

2017 – 8569
2018 – 7523
2019 – 4105
2020 – Not yet published, but assume same number as 2019. ( One thing to note down is from 2017, EB1 rejections increasing and filings reduced)

In October Visa bullitein EB1 India date is at June 01, 2018.

What multiplication you did to count family members too?

3. Satish says:

The table you were referring generated on Nov 12, 2019.

EB1 India in Nov 2019 Visa Bulletin — 01JAN15.
EB1 India in Oct 2020 Visa Bulletin — 01JUN18.

So now if you counting backlog as 73,487, you are ignoring already issues GC from 01 JAN 15 to 01Jun 18. As per Trackitt, some EB1 people whose PD in Feb 2018 already greened.

I-140 Approvals by FY

FY 2018 – 5000 (7,523, we can count 5000 from here on safe side as PD’s in Feb 2018 greened)
FY 2019 – 4,105
FY2020 – No data, but keeping 5000

Even i stretch numbers more it won’t exceed 15k.

Now include Family 15*2.5 = 37,500 (worst case 40k)

Correct me if i am wrong.

4. John Doe says:

You are assuming that none of approved EB1 I-140 from 2010-2020 been given Green Card? Assuming Visa numbers were issued to EB1-I in FY20 until PD of 1-March-2018, per https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/data/I140_rec_by_class_country_FY2020_Q1_Q2.pdf, there are only 14,147 EB1-I approved I-140 for 2018, 2019, and 2020. Since most of EB1 India are EB1-C, there are little chance of whole lot of new applicants this FY. Now, if you consider 3x per EB1, its 50,000 not 73,487. CATO may have made assumptions based on speculations that Binde wins and opens up the Visa… even if that happens, new PERM rules, if not taken down by the courts, will likely make it difficult for new EB1-C moving forward.

1. Satish says:

The link you have published has pending cases in EB1 in 2019 and 2020, excluding 10% standard rejections the count goes to ~18,000

2. Satish says:

73,487 is based on i140 inventory on Nov 12, 2019. EB1 moved to Mar 2018 from Jan 2015 (at the time of DHS published the table) in last FY. That was not considered here.

52. Tala Talapathi says:

My PD is Dec.2011 and i have i-140 approved in both EB2 & EB3, does it make sense to file now with DOF with EB3 or wait to see what happens for EB2 in nov bulletin and decide

1. Raghuram Sukumar says:

If you want EAD – I would it via EB3. If you want GC Faster, I would wait for EB2. Because GC is based on Final Action Dates.
If not many downgrade, then you may be left without EAD and GC. So, what’s important to you?

53. Token007 says:

Balanced analysis with whatever available data. Nifty!

54. Nandi says:

Do you have analysis for filing action date for someone with Pd in mid 2012 in EB2?

1. Raghuram Sukumar says:

EB2 2012 – You are in a tough spot. You are 100% dependent on how many folks will downgrade to EB3 and if they will create the required movement. I told a friend of men who has PD in Oct 2012 to downgrade.

1. gur12327 says:

how will downgrade create necessary movement when people downgrading will have I-140 in both the lanes. How will USCIS/DHS know that people in EB2 have moved to EB3 so lets move EB2 date ?

2. NRP says:

Looks like downgrading involves a bit of risk. What would you suggest to people with PD in 2012 if they can wait for FY22 for them to be current? Looking like many US embassies worldwide are not expected to be resuming routine visa services in near future due to COVID-19. Its probable the FB visa numbers might not reach the quota. Is there a rule directing any unused FB visa be spilled in to EB categories?
Appreciate your insights on possibilities next year

1. Raghuram Sukumar says:

Unused FB to EB is the Law. That’s how it’s written. But, USCIS processing time will determine if all the visas are allocated. Let’s say there are 1000 EB4 available, but USCIS approved only 751 I-485’s for that FY, rest will go unused!

55. Sachin says:

I have PD of May 2012. Will filling date move to this date by end of 2020 bulletin?

1. Raghuram Sukumar says:

56. Sachin says:

My priority date is May 2012 EB2. Do you think filling date for EB2 will move beyond 2012 May by end of 2020?

57. Monto says:

I have EB3 PD of Apr-2010. Do you think my dates will be current & greened this year. Thanks for the great work you’ve been doing.

Regards

58. Ved says:

Great analysis. Right to the point. I have below observation:
Based on Table 3 and 4 (Pending I-485):
2009 = 10,831 (From Table 3)
2010 = 30,626 (From Tabel 4)

In above numbers – shouldn’t we also account for
1. (Table 3) Some of the 485s cleared already since July 2018 till now as final action dates are hovering in 2009 for a few months
2. (Table 4) Some approved I-140 could be duplicate as applicant can have multiple approved I-140.

1. Raghuram Sukumar says:

I added that in CAse 1 – 5235 from 10,831 will be used for that (without spillover from ROW).
I-140 can be duplicated. But, we don’t have that data and that could move the Final action date.

59. Qwerty says:

Whats the best and worst case scenario for Final Action dates for EB2 and EB3 FY2021?

1. Raghuram Sukumar says:

FY 2021

Worst Case – End of 2010
Best Case – End of 2011
Excellent Case – Mid – 2012

1. Qwerty says:

is this scenario for eb2 or eb3?

60. Tarun says:

My PD is July 2012 EB3. I feel it is stretch to assume if my PD for FAD would be current this year, especially with EB2 to EB3 downgrades expected, but how far you think EB3 FAD will go this year in best and worst case scenario depending on EB2 to EB3 downgrade assumptions?

1. Raghuram Sukumar says:

I will do another analysis for EB3. Simple math – there are 80,000 approved I-140 for EB3 India (2009 to 2019). Add dependents 1.1 (88,000). Total of 168,000.

1. Ram says:

Can you pls do analysis for EB3 numbers when you get a chance, it will be of great help. I know this is your side hustle but thought would request. THANKS IN ADVANCE.

1. Raghuram Sukumar says:

I need to update the About Page. This is not my side hustle, but full-time 🙂