eb2 to eb3 downgrade rapid forward movement

I hope to answer the following questions about EB2 to EB3 downgrade and Rapid forward movement from the October 2020 Visa Bulletin.

  1. How will Visa Numbers be allocated for EB4, EB5, EB1, EB2, and EB3?
  2. My Priority Date in 2009 – Should I downgrade from EB2 to EB3?
  3. My Priority Date in 2010 – Should I downgrade from EB2 to EB3?
  4. My Priority Date in 2011 – Should I downgrade from EB2 to EB3?
  5. My Priority Date in 2012 – Should I downgrade from EB2 to EB3?
  6. My Priority Date is in 2013 and later – Should I downgrade from EB2 to EB3?
  7. What is Rapid Forward Movement mean for EB2 and EB3 from the Visas Bulletin?

I have been answering the same questions from friends repeatedly in the past couple of weeks. I told them that I haven’t looked at the data to give a concrete answer. Now, I have gotten around to that; let’s dig deeper.

Here’s my attempt to help you understand how EB Visa numbers will move and play put in 2020 and 2021.

We will be talking number and doing simple math (additions and subtractions along with percentage) along with assumptions.

Assumptions are for prediction for the upcoming Rapid Forward Movement.

If you are a newbie to this process, I would recommend you to start reading the Green Card Articles series below.

Q1. How Employment Green Cards do US issues per year?

A total of 140,000 Green Card are issued per year for Employment-based Categories that include EB1, EB2, EB3, EB4, and EB5.

Q2. How many EB Green Cards available for FY 2021?

As per the October 2020 Visa Bulletin, 261,500 Employment-Based Green Cards are available (about 121,500 more than the previous years).

Q3. How will the extra visa numbers be allocated or issued (generally)?

The following tables show Annual Numerical Limits for Employment-Based Green Card from FY 2018.

eb1 eb2 eb3 eb4 eb5 annual limits employment green card

Table 1 – FY 2018 EB Numbers

Q4. How are the EB Visa Numbers allocation changing for FY 2021?

We don’t have the data (just like the above table) from the Department of State for FY 2021. But, I’m applying the 28.6 and 7.1% allocation to calculate as follows.

FY 2021 expected EB Visa allocation

Tabel 2 – FY 2021 EB Visa Numbers (Expected)

 

Now, you have the answer to question 1 – How Visa Numbers will be allocated for EB4, EB5, EB1, EB2, and EB3?

If you assumed that additional EB numbers would be given just to EB2 and EB3, sorry to disappoint you!

Q5. How many EB2 and EB3 Indian Nationals are in the backlog? 

If USCIS published a pending I-485 inventory, our calculation would be straightforward and simple.

Unfortunately, we data we have is only from July 2018. It doesn’t do any good to predict the expected Rapid Forward Movement.

But, we do have access to approved I-140 data from Nov 2019 and the multiplier factor. Plus, Cato institute has done the backlogs calculations based on that data.

Backlog for Skilled Immigrants Tops 1 Million: Over 200,000 Indians Could Die of Old Age While Awaiting Green Cards

They have combined EB2 and EB3 for a total of 706,097. If it were split, it would be approximately (I know the count is off)

  • EB2 India = 568,414
  • EB3 India = 139,350

Q6. How does this number help to estimate the backlog and Final Action Data movements?

We have access to two data points today.

  1. Pending I-485 inventory data from July 2018 (See Here)
  2. Approved I-140 number per month from 2009 to 2019 (See Here)

By using the approved I-140 data, we can estimate the expected I-485.

Pending I-485 Data for EB2 India

USCIS I-485 Employment-Based Inventory Statistics India

Tabel 3 – Pending I-485 Inventory from July 2018

Estimated I-485 for 2010 to 2019

estimated i485 data based on approved i140 for eb2 india

Table 4 – Pending I-485 based on Approved I-140

How did I estimate the above data?

  • USCIS published Approved I-140 by year from 2009 to 2019
  • USCIS gave the Dependents Multiplier (1.0 for EB2 and 1.1 for EB3)

Q7. Should you downgrade from EB2 to EB3?

To answer the above questions, you need to understand the spillover for EB numbers.

Between EB Numbers

  • Unused EB4 Goes to EB5
  • Unused EB5 goes to EB1
  • Unused EB1 goes to EB2
  • Unused EB2 goes to EB3
  • Unused Rest of the Word within each category will go to Most Backlogged Country.

Case 1: There is no spillover for EB2 India (from EB1)

Assuming there is no spillover from EB1 to EB2 (also, no spillover from EB5 to EB1).

For FY 2021, EB2 will get 74,789 Visa numbers.

Here are the previous year’s number for India (Courtesy of my Friend)

eb1 eb3 eb3 india issues

FY 2019:

  • EB2 India = 2,908
  • Total = 40,052

FY 2021: (Case 1)

  • Total = 74,798
  • Difference = 74,798 – 40,052 = 34,746
  • Assumption (China, South Korea, and ROW uses the same numbers as the previous year)

In this case, EB2 Indian National should theoretically get about additional 34,746 additional EB2 Visa Numbers (Yay!).

FY 2021: (Case 2)

  • 5235 (China) + 5235 (South Korea) = 10470
  • 74789 – 10470 = 64319
  • If ROW uses 40,000, then 64319 – 40000 = 24319 for India

In this case, EB2 Indian National should theoretically get about additional 24,746 additional EB2 Visa Numbers (Yay!).

Based on Table 3 and 4 (Pending I-485) for Case 1:

  • 2009 = 10,831 (From Table 3)
  • 2010 = 30,626 (From Tabel 4)

Usage of Visa Numbers for Case 1:

  • For 2009
    • 5,235 from Regular 7% (Table 2)
    • 5,596 (from 34,746)
  • For 2010
    • 29,150 is available for use in 2010.

For Case 1: By the end of FY 2021, the Final Action date for EB2 India could move to the end of 2010. 

For Case 2: By the end of FY 2021, the Final Action date for EB2 India could move to the Q3 of 2010. 

What if there is spillover fro, EB1 to EB2 India?

Case 2: There is a spillover from EB1 to EB2 India

I really don’t think there will be a spillover from EB1 to EB2.

Yes. Seriously.

  • Estimated EB1 India Backlog = 73,487 (Cato Institue Table)
  • Total Expected EB1 Visa Avaiablity =  74,789

If there were any spillover, it would be very minimal (like 1,000).

So, I’m not doing the calculation for EB1 to EB2 Spillover.

But EB1 folks should rejoice. Your Green Card (or EAD) is just months ahead.

Case 3: No Spillover, but EB2 to EB3 Downgrade Creates Movement

This is a real possibility, but very hard to predict how many applicants are downgrading.

You have to do the math and decide based on say 25,000, 50,000 and 75,000 folks downgrading and how the date will move for EB2 based on that.

  • If 25,000 = Then the Final Action date could move to Mid 2011
  • If 50,000 = Then the Final Action date could move to Q1 of 2012
  • If 75,000 = Then the Final Action date could move to Mid 2013

These scenarios will make you contemplate if you have to go for EB2 to EB3 downgrade.

I think if your PD is after Mid 2013 or later – the option, is quite clear.

For folks with a Priority date before Mid-2013, you have a really tough decision to make.

  • How badly do you need EAD?
  • Why do you need EAD?
  • Would you continue to maintain your underlying visa status?
  • Are you willing to take the risk of USCIS decisions?

I am talking to attorneys to get a feel for an estimated downgrade number. In meantime, you have to explore and think about downgrading.

Q8. Should I downgrade from EB2 to EB3 for India?

Here’s what I’m thinking:

  • 2009 – You don’t have to
  • 2010 – Don’t (Date should move by end of FY 2021)
  • 2011 – Maybe (Date movement based on Downgrades)
  • 2012 – Maybe (Date movement based on Downgrades)
  • 2013 – Stretch (Date movement based on Downgrades)

But, don’t take any of my words. Downgrading from EB 2 to EB3 is not something you should decide after reading this analysis. But, talk to your Immigration Attorney and figure out if it makes sense to downgrade for your family’s needs.

I can see one-way the Final Action Date may not go all the way into 2011 if there is a demand from the Rest of the world category. I don’t see that from the numbers. But, I will continue to review these numbers and make updates.

So, what questions do you have for me?

108 Comments

  1. AKB on November 12, 2020 at 8:06 PM

    My EB2 PD is 07/19/2011. Still with same employer. My kid will age out in next six months. Shall I downgrade to EB3 or wait in EB2? Need your valuable suggestion. Please advise.

  2. Kishore on November 12, 2020 at 1:49 AM

    Will there be a spillover next year as well. I donโ€™t see any movement in Oct and Nov FB PD dates?

  3. Mohan Sathya on November 10, 2020 at 1:16 PM

    Hi, I have two questions. My PD March 2013. Should I downgrade. What’s your thought on downgrade EB2 Amendment to EB3 downgrade and concurrent i485 filing. My plan is to use EAD and AP.
    I work as a consultantย with a small company(5 Employees). But my employer is not willing to file downgrade and concurrent i485 filing. Because of theย “Ability to Pay” question. He thinks that it will impact all employees and his company. Is there anything that can overcome this issue?ย 

  4. Sal on November 7, 2020 at 4:56 PM

    So for people with priority date on 2016 should safely go ahead and downgrade to EB3 from EB2c

  5. SK on November 5, 2020 at 12:29 AM

    EB2I with PD March 10 2010 – Do you recommend to downgrade to EB3? Already have EAD/AP.

    When do you expect it to become current in EB2I? In EB3I, it is more or less expected in the Dec 2020 visa bulletin to become current.

    • Raghuram Sukumar on November 10, 2020 at 6:57 AM

      01MAR10 (Nov 2020 VB for EB3 India). This could become current in Dec or Jan 2020 VB.
      22SEP09 (Nov 2020 VB for EB2 India). This could also move with downgrades. Since you have EAD/AP, why take the risk to downgrade?

  6. Sushil Goel on October 30, 2020 at 11:45 AM

    Great analysis with limited data available. A question on EB1. Now EB1 final action date in Nov bulletin has moved to 1 Dec 2018. My EB13 PD is 18 Feb 2020 ans AOS has just been submitted. When do you see Feb 2020 PD date getting approved. Not sure if you or anybody else on forum knows, what (and if I can) decide to switch to new employer in next 2 months. My I140 approval will be more than 180 days old but AOS will only be 2 months old. Any suggestions/comments.

  7. VIKAS SHARMA on October 29, 2020 at 8:49 PM

    Can you pls do analysis for EB3 numbers when you get a chance, it will be of great help. THANKS IN ADVANCE.

  8. Yogi Bear on October 29, 2020 at 12:04 PM

    Excellent analysis and appreciate you posting this. My priority date is EB2-India Sep 2011. Would you recommend to downgrade just for EAD or would you recommend to see Final Action Dates for EB3 to be current for my priority date and then apply 485 ?

  9. Reddy on October 28, 2020 at 7:35 PM

    Thank you for your analysis.

    My PD is Mid Aug 2011 in EB2. I have valid H1B till 2014 Jan and i have applied for EB2 to EB3 downgrade. I have no plans to use EAD/AP. Due to the recent change in H1b on specialty occupation i doubt my next extension will succeed ( civil engineer working in IT ). My backup plan to use the employers tuition reimbursement program to complete MS in information science before my next extension. I would really appreciate if you can share the probability in getting GC in either EB2 or EB3 before my next extension with is 2014 Jan.

    • Raghuram Sukumar on November 3, 2020 at 8:45 AM

      Studying IT with tuition reimbursement is a great idea. Go for it, it will help with Speciality Occupation.

  10. Kanna on October 24, 2020 at 1:42 PM

    Hi, for EB2 June 2014, when do you think EAD atleast possible. Based on trackers i could see that my waiting line number is around 25000. With spillovers i could see by 2026 atleast EAD possible.

    Can you please give ball park. If i downgrade to EB3 I feel 2024 it could be possible for june 2014 priority date

    • Raghuram Sukumar on November 3, 2020 at 8:49 AM

      I would downgrade it if EAD is required. EB2 movement for 2015 is possible only if USCIS thinks they can get income from fling dates. Else I don’t see DOS would move it.

      • kanna on November 3, 2020 at 10:41 PM

        Thanks Raghu, i moved to new company last year and they just started PERM. with embassies closed for another coupe of months, FY 2022 will also have spill over with that for EB2 june 2014 is there possibility for EAD ? till 2014 in EB2 we have around 50k+ , out of that say 30k downgrade to EB3, next year only those will be in EB3 as current EB3 folks will be cleared by that time. i am thinking in that angle and going to ask my lawyer to file in EB3 once PERM done.

        • Raghuram Sukumar on November 10, 2020 at 6:53 AM

          EV2 – 2014 – Depends on the number of spillovers. Plus, a new admin. We have to see how they will handle the Visa Processings.

  11. Kumar on October 22, 2020 at 12:40 AM

    Can you please post a similar analysis for EB3 too?

  12. Amrish on October 20, 2020 at 11:10 AM

    Hi,

    you talked about no Spillover coming to EB-2 from EB-1. or at max of 1000. but how about EB-4 and EB-5, which are getting additional 8,000 each. Those should spillover to EB-1 and hence to EB-2. if EB-1 will be current with 75,000 number.

    • Raghuram Sukumar on October 20, 2020 at 4:43 PM

      EB5 China is backlogged for like 15 years ๐Ÿ™‚

      All the spillover from EB4 should be consumed with China.

      • Amrish on October 21, 2020 at 6:30 AM

        Looks like EB-2 will have better chance Next year if things remain same.

  13. Ram on October 17, 2020 at 8:56 PM

    My PD is Nov, 2011 in EB2, do you recommend EB3 downgrade?

  14. lucerne on October 15, 2020 at 9:21 PM

    the family multiplier is too less. Assume at least 1.5 to 2.0. the factor 1.0 and 1.1 is absurd in today’s time. most people getting GC for PD of 2010 and 2011, 2012 are already married and settled. please be realistic.

    • Raghuram Sukumar on October 17, 2020 at 8:07 AM

      WE can go by what USCIS has given. Folks who surround me, I see a multiplier of 1 is good. Most of them have kids born here. So, it’s either spouse counts as 1.

  15. Janide on October 15, 2020 at 3:33 PM

    First of all I would like to Thank you for spending your valuable time on Analysis and providing number of probabilities. Kudos to you! My question is very basic, I think I just got little confuse. What you mean by โ€œ PD is after Mid 2013 or later โ€“ the option, is quite clearโ€.
    Does it mean that those folks should go for eb3 downgrade (of course on their own situation and risk)?
    Thank you for looking into very basic question.

    • Raghuram Sukumar on October 15, 2020 at 6:39 PM

      Yes. That’s what I meant ๐Ÿ™‚

  16. Suraj on October 15, 2020 at 2:59 PM

    I have a question if you can offer your insights. My date is April 2010 EB2 & hopefully I should be cleared with a spillover. But how long do you think April 2010 might take to clear with no spillovers coming at all (due to whatever reason/act/bill)?

    • Raghuram Sukumar on October 15, 2020 at 6:40 PM

      It depends on how DOS decided to move the dates. They could use month by month, or Q/Q or semi-monthly or move Aug/Sep. So, I would say – this FY.

  17. ajay on October 15, 2020 at 1:51 PM

    Any chance that the EB3 filing dates will move beyond Jan 2015 in the coming months for India.

    My priority date is Sep 2nd, 2015 eb3

    • Raghuram Sukumar on October 15, 2020 at 6:41 PM

      I think it will not. I have to do a similar analysis for EB3.

  18. RK on October 15, 2020 at 1:37 PM

    Thank you for the nice Analysis. Though I still have this question unanswered or I might have missed from your detailed explanation.. Request to please clarify this
    Does EB3 dates move only if there is spill over from EB2 or is there any percentage of numbers allocated to EB3?

    • Raghuram Sukumar on October 15, 2020 at 6:42 PM

      I don’t see a way for spillover from EB2 to EB3. All EB3 will from EB3 ROW to EB3 India.

  19. AB on October 15, 2020 at 12:34 PM

    It’s just unfair on those waiting on EB3 to be now bumped into by EB2. This is bloody crap of a rule. EB3 are not idiots to be waiting there for years and now suddenly being outsmarted by EB2. USCIS should ban downgrades, or atleast make them re-apply. We have families too to take care of!

    • Raghuram Sukumar on October 15, 2020 at 6:42 PM

      EB3 folks would have done the same if EB2 was moving fast ๐Ÿ™‚

      • AP on October 16, 2020 at 3:40 PM

        They did it in 2012 and that’s why folks like having PD of June-2011 are still waiting after 9 yrs.

    • Debarshi Kar on October 16, 2020 at 2:50 PM

      That is not unfair, it is kind of the same. The bulk applications in EB2 are all those who moved from EB3 to EB2 earlier.

  20. Srini on October 14, 2020 at 1:50 PM

    Great analysis Raghu and spot-on on many aspects.
    For a PD 2014 Aug, whats your thought on downgrade to EB3 and concurrent 485 filing. I have no intention to use EAD or AP.

    • Raghuram Sukumar on October 15, 2020 at 2:28 PM

      EB2 – 2014 is going to take a long time (even for Filing Chart to move). There are inherent advantages to EAD. I would downgrade.

  21. Prem on October 14, 2020 at 12:43 PM

    My PD is June 3 2011 EB2. I am in process of downgrading just not for EAD but in the anticipation of a faster Green Card in EB3 based on a read somewhere that the spill over to most backlogged country is equally divided among all EB categories by law. Is that a fact?

    • Raghuram Sukumar on October 15, 2020 at 2:32 PM

      Spillover is applied per category (Eb4 > 5 > 1 > 2 > 3) then Horizontal within each category. EB3 India is Jan 2010 (vs Sep 2009 for EB2). So, It’s hard to say how many EB3 will be applied with this. It’s tough to predict EB3 will have faster movement. What if Eb2 to EB3 downgraded creates faster Final Action Date movement? Plus, you are so close.

      • vk on October 17, 2020 at 1:14 PM

        Raghu, you are talking about 2021 fiscal year spill over (Eb4 > 5 > 1 > 2 > 3) correct? Because family based spill over will be used to each (a count of 37k) So don’t you think EB3 will move beyond 2011 June final action dates?

        • Raghuram Sukumar on October 18, 2020 at 2:33 PM

          Assumption – Worst-Case – Everyone on EB2 from 2010 and 2011 downgrades to EB3 + 1250 New I-485 per month for EB3. So, math for EB3 movement will depend on this.

  22. Varun on October 13, 2020 at 9:11 PM

    BTW a typo on your calcs. is it 74,798 or is it 74,789? number differs in case 1 vs case 2.

  23. Varun on October 13, 2020 at 9:10 PM

    Interesting post, and good analysis. Thanks for sharing it with us.

    the downgrade point – 25k/50k/75k – one has to also consider what is the vintage year for those downgrades. if late 2013/2014/early 2015 folks downgrade in mass, it makes no difference to the analysis of FAD moving to Dec 2010.

    If I had to model this, I would take a different approach. I would put a factor on the % of people eligible who can downgrade (coming up with that factor is a separate modeling exercise), and then multiply that factor with vintage year to see how many people would actually go out of queue at specific positions.

    One should then also model EB3 priority dates for the sheer beauty of statistics, oh and for website views. Yeah, website views.

    • Raghuram Sukumar on October 15, 2020 at 2:34 PM

      My skills extent as far as this article goes. Modeling – If you want to try, I’m happy to publish ๐Ÿ™‚

  24. Karnakalli on October 13, 2020 at 4:30 PM

    My pd is 25th June 2011 EB2 India, i am so confused about moving to EB3. Plz let me know your openion. my current decision is to wait on EB2.

  25. Muthu on October 13, 2020 at 12:34 PM

    Excellent analysis Raghuram. I think this is the best we can predict with the available data. Hope and which they reconsider publishing I-485 inventory data again…

  26. Sudhamsu on October 13, 2020 at 11:34 AM

    My PD is 30th Dec 2009 (EB2). Do you think the date will be current in November/December?

  27. va on October 13, 2020 at 11:22 AM

    Hi this is great analysis!!

    I have a question regarding ROW using 40K visas. For fiscal 2019 65K I-140 were approved worldwide. Of those 9K were Chinese and 41.5K for India. So combined its 50.5K . So rest of the world was 15K and adding dependents it would be 30K for ROW. Given the COVID situation it might be even lower for fiscal โ€™20 and โ€™21.

    So going with the calculation in case 1) EB2I would get 75K-30K = 45k and in case 2) EB2I would get 75K-30K- 10K(China and SK) = 35K.

    The other thing you missed is the data from USCIS is based on fiscal year and not calendar year. So oct 2009-sep 2010 would come under 2010. So you donโ€™t consider 2009 as it from Oct 2008- to Sep 2009. Since Sep 2020 bulletin was already at Jul2009 for EB2I, we only must consider two months and that would be around 2K.

    For fiscal 2010 (till Sep 2010) it 30.6K. So for case 1) assuming we have 45k visas for EB2I it would be
    45k โ€“ 2K (fiscal โ€™09) โ€“ 30K (fiscal โ€™10) = 13K

    So assuming around 3.6K for each month of fiscal โ€™11 would reach approx. 3.5 months into the fiscal year. So it would be Jan โ€˜11

    For case 2) at 35K visas it would be Oct โ€™10. So according to my calculation these would might be FAD by Sep โ€˜21

    If 45K visas for EB2I -> Jan โ€™11
    If 35K visas for EB2I -> Oct โ€™10
    If 25K visas (using your calculation) -> June/July โ€˜10
    What this might not consider is any attrition in I-140 applications, reduction in usage from ROW for fiscal โ€™21, SO from EB1.

    I think it would be best case scenario if it reaches May โ€™11 by Sep โ€™21 bulletin.

    Let me know if you anything wrong with this. Thanks!!

  28. Akkhi on October 13, 2020 at 1:49 AM

    My PD is nov 2014 EB2 , should I downgrade to Eb3 or not confused. Please advise.

  29. Tarun on October 12, 2020 at 11:37 PM

    Thanks. Looking forward for that. Always interesting to read your analysis and point of view.

  30. Ram on October 12, 2020 at 11:05 PM

    I ‘ve EB2 i-140 with priority date of Nov-2011, do you recommend downgrading to EB3?

  31. Palan on October 12, 2020 at 9:22 PM

    My PD is Sep 2011 EB2. The analysis you have provided and the Best/Worst cases are informative. What do you think about keeping the filing dates and USCIS honoring the filing date filing in the coming bulletins ? For folks who could not downgrade for whatever reason, it might help them.

  32. salil on October 12, 2020 at 9:21 PM

    Thanks for the analysis. I understand applicants have multiple I-140s but we can not account for that. My PD is EB2 India August end 2011.

    Why would EB2 before mid May 2011 downgrade to EB3 when it will take long time to process downgrade and is not completely risk free unless difference in FAD between 2 categories increase more than what it is at present? Whatโ€™s your thought on that?

    EB3 must not be that crowded as most of them have upgraded to EB2 otherwise EB3 filing dates wonโ€™t move to 2015 compared to 2011.

    It seems every year for last 4 years EB3 India has been receiving couple of thousand GCs more than EB2 based on your table above.

    Based on all this, should EB2 India August end 2022 downgrade to EB3 and may get GC sooner?

    Thanks.

    • Vikas S on October 21, 2020 at 1:50 AM

      in my opinion wait for Nov Bulletin.

  33. Feb2013 on October 12, 2020 at 8:12 PM

    If people downgrade from eb2 to eb3, then how dates for eb2 will move because when people are downgrading their eb2 I-140 is still valid and they can always file i-145 with eb2. So how will uscis know to moves dates of eb2 based on downgrades ?

  34. KishoreK on October 12, 2020 at 6:56 PM

    Great analysis!

    Question: My priority date is June 30- 2011 EB2. have following questions-

    – Shall I downgrade to EB3?
    -Shall I wait for EB2 dates to become current, I missed by 45days?
    -Do you think getting ‘Greened’ for June Priority date will be faster for EB3 than for EB2?

  35. joy on October 12, 2020 at 6:33 PM

    Thanks for all the effort!

    My PD is Dec 2009 – EB2 India … Do you think it will be current in November or December?

  36. Dhanu on October 12, 2020 at 5:04 PM

    My PD is June-1-2011 EB2. Is it worth downgrading ?

  37. va on October 12, 2020 at 5:04 PM

    Hi this is great analysis!!
    I have a question regarding ROW using 40K visas. For fiscal 2019 65K I-140 were approved worldwide. Of those 9K were Chinese and 41.5K for India. So combined its 50.5K . So rest of the world was 15K and adding dependents it would be 30K for ROW. Given the COVID situation it might be even lower for fiscal โ€™20 and โ€™21.

    So going with the calculation in case 1) EB2I would get 75K-30K = 45k and in case 2) EB2I would get 75K-30K- 10K(China and SK) = 35K.

    The other thing you missed is the data from USCIS is based on fiscal year and not calendar year. So oct 2009-sep 2010 would come under 2010. So you donโ€™t consider 2009 as it from Oct 2008- to Sep 2009. Since Sep 2020 bulletin was already at Jul2009 for EB2I, we only must consider two months and that would be around 2K.

    For fiscal 2010 (till Sep 2010) it 30.6K. So for case 1) assuming we have 45k visas for EB2I it would be
    45k โ€“ 2K (fiscal โ€™09) โ€“ 30K (fiscal โ€™10) = 13K .

    So assuming around 3.6K for each month of fiscal โ€™11 would reach approx. 3.5 months into the fiscal year. So it would be Jan โ€˜11

    For case 2) at 35K visas it would be Oct โ€™10. So according to my calculation these would might be FAD by Sep โ€˜21

    If 45K visas for EB2I ๏ƒ  Jan โ€™11
    If 35K visas for EB2I ๏ƒ  Oct โ€™10
    If 25K visas (using your calculation) ๏ƒ  June/July โ€˜10
    What this might not consider is any attrition in I-140 applications, reduction in usage from ROW for fiscal โ€™21, SO from EB1.

    I think it would be best case scenario if it reaches May โ€™11 by Sep โ€™21 bulletin.

    Let me know if you anything wrong with this. Thanks!!

  38. Kumar on October 12, 2020 at 5:00 PM

    Good Information. Thanks.
    You might need to fix the title to EB2 to EB3 downgrade.

    • Raghuram Sukumar on October 15, 2020 at 6:48 PM

      Done. Thanks!

  39. GC Aspirant on October 12, 2020 at 4:34 PM

    Great analysis. Appreciate the effort you have put out in helping the community. My PD is Nov 2011 in EB2. I am taking collective feedback from different attorneys and the majority tell me to wait for a few bulletins to come out for making a downgrade decision. What would your advice be to a person at and around my PDs? Do you anticipate Filing Dates to advance as well besides Final Action Dates? Thanks.

  40. Raghu on October 12, 2020 at 4:26 PM

    I have an EB2 I priority date of Dec 15 2009 , what are the chances that the FAD will hit my PD this year ?

  41. Radhey on October 12, 2020 at 3:22 PM

    My priority date is May 23 2011 EB2. Do you think filling date for EB2 will move beyond 2011 May in next couple of bulletins? Also, do i need to downgrade to EB3 as soon as possible?

  42. Umesh on October 12, 2020 at 1:32 PM

    My priority is Oct 3 2011, but due to wage requirement i am thinking to downgrade, please advice what should i do ?

  43. RR on October 12, 2020 at 12:52 PM

    Hi,
    I have PD of Nov 2011 in EB2 from my old employer. I applied perm with my new employer in June 2020 and awaiting the response.
    1) Would you know how long it may take to get my perm approval?
    2) Given that i have an opportunity now to pick either Eb2 or EB3, would you suggest me to pick EB3?

  44. Praveen on October 12, 2020 at 11:59 AM

    Hi Raghuram,

    My EB2 I priority date is July 10th, 2010. Based on your analysis if Miller allows all the visas to be utilized for EB. How many months can I expect my EAD and GC if I am filing it this month.

    Request you to please provide your inputs. Btw, Excellent analysis regarding the spill over and visa allocation. Haven’t seen anything until now this transparent.

  45. Santosh Ankush on October 12, 2020 at 11:19 AM

    My PD is july 23rd 2011 in Eb2 please advise should i downgrade ?

  46. ajmata on October 12, 2020 at 11:04 AM

    Thanks for this analysis. It seems that USCIS has released new i140 numbers
    https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/data/I140_rec_by_class_country_FY2020_Q1_Q2.pdf

    Number of EB filings are down. How will this affect EB FD dates?

  47. honeylocust on October 12, 2020 at 9:57 AM

    Is it worth downgrading from eb2 to eb3 for July 2011 PD ?

    • Prashant on October 12, 2020 at 4:35 PM

      Same boat. July 2011 PD. Any thoughts.
      The company said they will support downgrade but won’t pay.
      If I go ahead and downgrade on my own cost and my PD moves in this week, it’s my loss!

    • Srini on October 13, 2020 at 7:39 PM

      My PD is 2014.? Absolutely no plans to use EAD or AP immediately.
      Is it worth downgrading to Eb3 now and get into the GC wait queue?

      • Raghuram Sukumar on October 15, 2020 at 2:35 PM

        I know someone who got EAD from 2007! And it took 12 more years to actually get GC in Hand. He got laid off a few times. EAD really helped him.

  48. Suraj on October 12, 2020 at 9:56 AM

    Thanks for the analysis. Is there any chance that the spillover numbers for FY2021 can actually be rolled back? Are the numbers allocated yet to FY21? I read somewhere that it take about a month after the start of the fiscal for the spillover numbers to be applied. How likely is it for the spillover numbers to be rolled back at this point due to some new bill/Act getting passed.

    • Raghuram Sukumar on October 12, 2020 at 11:02 AM

      Only Mr.Miller knows the answer if they want to give all these GC to EB.

  49. SR on October 12, 2020 at 9:45 AM

    My PD is 01/2011 EB2I. Do you think I might get GC in the next 1 year?

    • Raghuram Sukumar on October 12, 2020 at 11:03 AM

      You could apply for GC in FY 2021. Getting GC in Hand could take a while. I-485 is taking about 15 months. EAD is like 6 months. So, Best Case: Apply for I-485 by Sep 2021 and EAD in 6months to 12 months after that, plus GC after that.

      • SR on October 12, 2020 at 3:35 PM

        Thank You very much!! Hope FAD will reach early to mid 2011 for EB2 I in FY21.

  50. NSom on October 12, 2020 at 9:30 AM

    My PD is Nov : Is there a probability to have my FAD current in the next 2 years? Like end of 2022. Have an important decision to make accordingly?

    • Raghuram Sukumar on October 12, 2020 at 11:04 AM

      NOV of what year?

  51. Satish on October 12, 2020 at 8:23 AM

    Estimated EB1 India Backlog = 73,487
    What’s the source for this number?

    • Raghuram Sukumar on October 12, 2020 at 11:04 AM

      Approved I-140 numbers published by DHS as of Nov 2019.

      • Manoj on October 12, 2020 at 2:14 PM

        I believe 73,487 EB1 India backlog is no longer true, since majority of them (~20,000)+ might have got greened in Sep 2020 as there was very less demand for Immigration from ROW due to COVID situation. Also, for USCIS FY 2021 the ROW demand might be less in EB1 which might spill over to EB1 India and potentially some spill over to EB2 India.

      • Satish Sompalli on October 12, 2020 at 5:26 PM

        EB1 India approvals by FY

        2017 – 8569
        2018 – 7523
        2019 – 4105
        2020 – Not yet published, but assume same number as 2019. ( One thing to note down is from 2017, EB1 rejections increasing and filings reduced)

        In October Visa bullitein EB1 India date is at June 01, 2018.

        What multiplication you did to count family members too?

      • Satish on October 12, 2020 at 7:37 PM

        The table you were referring generated on Nov 12, 2019.

        EB1 India in Nov 2019 Visa Bulletin — 01JAN15.
        EB1 India in Oct 2020 Visa Bulletin — 01JUN18.

        So now if you counting backlog as 73,487, you are ignoring already issues GC from 01 JAN 15 to 01Jun 18. As per Trackitt, some EB1 people whose PD in Feb 2018 already greened.

        I-140 Approvals by FY

        FY 2018 – 5000 (7,523, we can count 5000 from here on safe side as PD’s in Feb 2018 greened)
        FY 2019 – 4,105
        FY2020 – No data, but keeping 5000

        Even i stretch numbers more it won’t exceed 15k.

        Now include Family 15*2.5 = 37,500 (worst case 40k)

        Correct me if i am wrong.

      • John Doe on October 13, 2020 at 7:03 PM

        You are assuming that none of approved EB1 I-140 from 2010-2020 been given Green Card? Assuming Visa numbers were issued to EB1-I in FY20 until PD of 1-March-2018, per https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/data/I140_rec_by_class_country_FY2020_Q1_Q2.pdf, there are only 14,147 EB1-I approved I-140 for 2018, 2019, and 2020. Since most of EB1 India are EB1-C, there are little chance of whole lot of new applicants this FY. Now, if you consider 3x per EB1, its 50,000 not 73,487. CATO may have made assumptions based on speculations that Binde wins and opens up the Visa… even if that happens, new PERM rules, if not taken down by the courts, will likely make it difficult for new EB1-C moving forward.

        • Satish on October 15, 2020 at 4:38 PM

          The link you have published has pending cases in EB1 in 2019 and 2020, excluding 10% standard rejections the count goes to ~18,000

        • Satish on October 15, 2020 at 5:17 PM

          73,487 is based on i140 inventory on Nov 12, 2019. EB1 moved to Mar 2018 from Jan 2015 (at the time of DHS published the table) in last FY. That was not considered here.

  52. Tala Talapathi on October 12, 2020 at 8:18 AM

    My PD is Dec.2011 and i have i-140 approved in both EB2 & EB3, does it make sense to file now with DOF with EB3 or wait to see what happens for EB2 in nov bulletin and decide

    • Raghuram Sukumar on October 12, 2020 at 11:07 AM

      If you want EAD – I would it via EB3. If you want GC Faster, I would wait for EB2. Because GC is based on Final Action Dates.
      If not many downgrade, then you may be left without EAD and GC. So, what’s important to you?

  53. Token007 on October 11, 2020 at 11:05 PM

    Balanced analysis with whatever available data. Nifty!

  54. Nandi on October 11, 2020 at 1:53 PM

    Do you have analysis for filing action date for someone with Pd in mid 2012 in EB2?

    • Raghuram Sukumar on October 12, 2020 at 11:09 AM

      EB2 2012 – You are in a tough spot. You are 100% dependent on how many folks will downgrade to EB3 and if they will create the required movement. I told a friend of men who has PD in Oct 2012 to downgrade.

      • gur12327 on October 22, 2020 at 8:25 PM

        how will downgrade create necessary movement when people downgrading will have I-140 in both the lanes. How will USCIS/DHS know that people in EB2 have moved to EB3 so lets move EB2 date ?

        may be asking something basic

      • NRP on November 10, 2020 at 1:21 AM

        Looks like downgrading involves a bit of risk. What would you suggest to people with PD in 2012 if they can wait for FY22 for them to be current? Looking like many US embassies worldwide are not expected to be resuming routine visa services in near future due to COVID-19. Its probable the FB visa numbers might not reach the quota. Is there a rule directing any unused FB visa be spilled in to EB categories?
        Appreciate your insights on possibilities next year

        • Raghuram Sukumar on November 10, 2020 at 6:51 AM

          Unused FB to EB is the Law. That’s how it’s written. But, USCIS processing time will determine if all the visas are allocated. Let’s say there are 1000 EB4 available, but USCIS approved only 751 I-485’s for that FY, rest will go unused!

  55. Sachin on October 10, 2020 at 11:40 PM

    I have PD of May 2012. Will filling date move to this date by end of 2020 bulletin?

    • Raghuram Sukumar on October 12, 2020 at 11:10 AM

      I answered another question for 2012. Please refer to that.

  56. Sachin on October 10, 2020 at 11:11 PM

    My priority date is May 2012 EB2. Do you think filling date for EB2 will move beyond 2012 May by end of 2020?

  57. Monto on October 10, 2020 at 10:01 AM

    I have EB3 PD of Apr-2010. Do you think my dates will be current & greened this year. Thanks for the great work youโ€™ve been doing.

    Regards

  58. Ved on October 10, 2020 at 9:36 AM

    Great analysis. Right to the point. I have below observation:
    Based on Table 3 and 4 (Pending I-485):
    2009 = 10,831 (From Table 3)
    2010 = 30,626 (From Tabel 4)

    In above numbers – shouldn’t we also account for
    1. (Table 3) Some of the 485s cleared already since July 2018 till now as final action dates are hovering in 2009 for a few months
    2. (Table 4) Some approved I-140 could be duplicate as applicant can have multiple approved I-140.

    • Raghuram Sukumar on October 10, 2020 at 12:00 PM

      I added that in CAse 1 – 5235 from 10,831 will be used for that (without spillover from ROW).
      I-140 can be duplicated. But, we don’t have that data and that could move the Final action date.

  59. Qwerty on October 9, 2020 at 6:36 PM

    Whats the best and worst case scenario for Final Action dates for EB2 and EB3 FY2021?

    • Raghuram Sukumar on October 10, 2020 at 9:32 AM

      FY 2021

      Worst Case – End of 2010
      Best Case – End of 2011
      Excellent Case – Mid – 2012

      • Qwerty on October 10, 2020 at 11:09 AM

        is this scenario for eb2 or eb3?

  60. Tarun on October 9, 2020 at 4:50 PM

    My PD is July 2012 EB3. I feel it is stretch to assume if my PD for FAD would be current this year, especially with EB2 to EB3 downgrades expected, but how far you think EB3 FAD will go this year in best and worst case scenario depending on EB2 to EB3 downgrade assumptions?

    • Raghuram Sukumar on October 10, 2020 at 9:35 AM

      I will do another analysis for EB3. Simple math – there are 80,000 approved I-140 for EB3 India (2009 to 2019). Add dependents 1.1 (88,000). Total of 168,000.

      • Ram on October 13, 2020 at 4:58 PM

        Can you pls do analysis for EB3 numbers when you get a chance, it will be of great help. I know this is your side hustle but thought would request. THANKS IN ADVANCE.

        • Raghuram Sukumar on October 15, 2020 at 2:37 PM

          I need to update the About Page. This is not my side hustle, but full-time ๐Ÿ™‚

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