You Won’t Believe This H1B Visa 2015 Predictions – 250,000 Applications Expected.

Here’s Official Happy Schools H1B Visa 2015 Predictions.

Who is ready for H1B Visa lottery this year?  If you aren’t then get ready. It’s coming.

Every year I try to take a different approach towards predicting H1B Visa applications numbers.

For this H1B visa cap 2015 season, I reached out to Immigration Attorney’s who are “actually” representing employers to file H-1B visa applications.

I asked them 2 simple questions :

  1. Do you think there will be H-1B Visa Lottery this year?
  2. How many applications do you expect in first 5 business days this fiscal year :
    1. General Cap :
    2. Advanced Degree Cap :

So far I have received replies from several Immigration attorney’s and here’s official H1B Visa 2015 Predictions for this year.

H1B Visa 2015 Predictions from Attorney’s

1. Greg Siskind : www.visalaw.com

I think we’ll likely see an increase over last year of 5 to 10%. The economy is stronger, but only marginally, and unemployment is down somewhat, but not that much.

Last year I believe there were about 25% more applications received than slots available. I’m guessing that the margin will be somewhat higher – perhaps 33% more applications than H-1B slots available.

  • In Numbers :
    • Last Year approximately 124,000
    • This year 5 to 10% increase :  6,200 to 12,400 + 124,000

 

2. Murali Bashyam : www.bashyamspiro.com

  • 100,000 for the General Cap
  • 25,000 for the Advanced Degree Cap

 

3. Jacob Sapochnick :  www.visalawyerblog.com

  • Yes for sure, we are busier than last year and so do many other lawyers.
  • General Cap  : 130,000 at least total

 

4. Ashwin Sharma : www.ashwinsharma.com

Yes, I am quite certain there will be another lottery this year.  I was among the first to predict that there would be a lottery last year, which was the first lottery since 2008.

It also may be that my interview with Reuters last March, which was carried by 120+ newspapers/websites across the world (including the Times of India/NBC/Associated Press – I’ve put some in my signature – the TOI link appears expired fyi) may have actually acted to help increase the volume of the filings.

Further; last year Fedex, UPS and the top evaluation agencies buckled under the intense workload created by the avalanche of H-1B applications.  I don’t think collateral parties will be affected the same way: they are more prepared this year.

I would like to guestimate on only the total number of H-1B cap applications this year: last year I believe there were about 125K applications for about 85K slots (minus Singapore/Chile).  This year I would estimate 140K applications.  I would also submit that this is the year that Congress finally gets the signal that the H-1B quota should be increased.

 

5. Shah Peerally : www.peerallylaw.com

Yes, the chances of the lottery is almost 99%2.
  •  General Cap : around 200k
  • Advanced Degree Cap : around 40 k

 

6. Tahmina Watson : www.immigrationlawyersinseattle.com

As the economy gets better, demand for H1bs get higher. The forthcoming H1b season is likely to cause a stir for all applicants and employers.  Similar to last year, fiscal year 2015 will likely be a lottery again.  So, if you are planning to file an H1B petition this year, then best to ensure your petition is prepared to be filed on March 31 to reach USCIS on April 1st.

My guess is that the number of total H1B applications, including master’s cap, will likely exceed 250,000.  I believe the economy has significantly improved that the demand will increase.

Last year, the USCIS kept the window open for 5 days to accept H1b petitions.  I am convinced that more  85,000 petitions were received on the very first day.  I expect the same to happen this year.  The question is whether USCIS will keep the window of acceptance open for 5 days, or whether it will be less this year.  It is likely USCIS will make a public announcement in due course.  Either way, anyone filing an application this year should ensure the petition reaches USCIS on April 1st to avoid disappointment of the window closing too soon.

 

7. Dimo Michailov : www.cilawgroup.com

Yes, I am confident that there will be a lottery this year – and my expectation is that there would be most likely over 200,000 H-1B applications filed under this year’s cap.

Other than guessing, which I’d rather not do, I do not think I can give you an idea of the breakdown between regular and US master’s degree cap.

//

Now there is one thing that is common among all H1b Visa 2015 predictions  :

  • Predictions : H1B Visa lottery for FY 2015 – 100%
  • Lowest Estimate for Total Number of H1B Visa applications : 130,000

[div class=”content-box-yellow”] Immigration Attorney’s Predict 130k to 250k #H1B Visa applications #USCIS. Lottery Chances 100%. Tweet This Message. [end-div]

Here’s a comment posted by a reader

I have been selected by 3 different companies for H1B. Is that legal? I know that same employer can not file for same employee but in my case 3 different employers are filing. If it is legal will my name be considered 3 times for lottery or only once?

There goes another person’s H1B visa Cap. If the person applying via multiple employers just to get lucky are going to drive up the number of applications.

If USCIS happen to select all the application via Random Lottery selection, then one other person is going to affected.

So, we have the official H1B Visa predictions. Now, let’s wait for actual numbers to from USCIS sometime during first or second week of April.

Questions?

Do you have questions about H1B Visa lottery or anything related to this year H1b Visa cap year? Post them in the comments section below.

28 Comments

  1. Manju on February 25, 2016 at 7:55 AM

    Hi Raghuram,

    I have completed my Bachelor and Master in computer’s from distance education.
    My questions to you, will i be eligible to apply for H1b visa or not.

    NOTE : I completed from Annamalai University, Tamil Nadu.

    • Raghuram Sukumar on February 26, 2016 at 8:31 AM

      Refer to H1B section for H1B Visa requirements.

  2. Aditya on January 4, 2016 at 11:05 AM

    Hi ,
    Does MBA from US business schools comes under STEM category ??
    Thanks

  3. Jennifer on May 14, 2015 at 10:54 AM

    When can i expect the H1B lottery result 2015 ?

  4. Sri on March 13, 2015 at 11:35 AM

    If I apply thorough 3 different employers, are there any chances of rejecting or cancelling if H1 picked in the lottery.

    All 3 are not known to each other. All 3 are entirely different applications

    • Raghuram Sukumar on March 13, 2015 at 12:02 PM

      Are you paying for all 3?

      • Sri on March 13, 2015 at 1:59 PM

        Yes

        If not picked i would get all the money back

        • Raghuram Sukumar on March 14, 2015 at 5:06 PM

          I know how they would respond when you ask for money back. It may take several months before you get your money. Trust me. Be careful. USCIS can very well reject all 3 even though their policy is no duplicate filings.

          • Sri on March 20, 2015 at 12:38 PM

            But I don’t have any other option. I filed last year but haven’t got luck.

            So I have to get this time at any criteria.

            I’m paying for all 3 and USCIS gets their money but why do they reject if 3 different employers offer me jobs.

            Hoping to get only 1 application picked and the rest return pack without picked in lottery.



          • Raghuram Sukumar on March 21, 2015 at 8:29 PM

            Be careful. I’m hearing from Attorneys that they are going to be really careful this time.



          • kaushik on March 22, 2015 at 10:19 PM

            if god is there somewhere, he would do justice. Am I a fool to apply for my legitimate single job? Whats up with ppl? This is my last attempt too. Shame on you dude.



          • Sri on March 24, 2015 at 1:35 PM

            Hello Mr. Kaushik,

            Am on the same plate and how can you think wrong. Anyone will look for all the opportunities possible. Its not shame or whatever. Please be in limits.

            You try in your way if am into trouble I will face the consequences you are not to judge me right???



          • kaushik on March 25, 2015 at 3:59 AM

            Also I didn’t think of any wrong. I just said that I hope god do justice!!!



        • kaushik on March 25, 2015 at 3:02 AM

          Unbelievable!!! First what you are doing is illegal and then you are saying that I should be in my limits…wow as if blocking my chance was not enough for you. I truly hope that god do justice as USICS wont do it…

  5. Sach Nad on February 12, 2015 at 3:56 AM

    Hi, Raghu
    I have done Masters in Engineering in India. Is there any chance of mine to get selected from quota of 20,000 for H1-B.

  6. Karthick on February 2, 2015 at 12:09 PM

    Hi,

    I had visa until 2013 August. But I left U.S by April 2013. Though, it has expired by now, I believe I am still eligible to claim it before 6 years from 2013. I am trying to find out possible options to travel claiming that visa.
    I am in India now. which is the best option i can pursue
    Option1)
    Qn1) Asking my employer to file Labor and I-140 say if i get it in 6 months and claim the remaining visa. Do I get it?
    qn2) How much it would cost for labor and i-140?
    Option2)
    qn3) or Going through the cap for 2015 would be the good idea?

    • Raghuram Sukumar on February 5, 2015 at 10:43 AM

      When did your H1 start? How many years have you used it so far?

  7. Bin on January 16, 2015 at 7:39 AM

    Hi I was in US in F1 visa from Dec 2008 till May 2010. I completed my MS from SUNY Buffalo. I had not applied for any EAD or OPT. I had straight come back after my exam is over. Now my employer wants to apply H1B for me in 2015. I want to know if I am eligible for the US master exemption or not. If yes that what all documents I may have to produce

  8. RT on January 12, 2015 at 2:02 PM

    I had an H1B and worked in the US for 3 years, and then left. Now if I want to come back, would I need to worry about being in the cap? Or can I apply at any time since I am already “in the system” so to speak?

    If I were to come back, would it make a different whether it was with the same employer or a different one?

    • Raghuram Sukumar on January 12, 2015 at 2:19 PM

      1. You will not come under cap if you had held H-1b in past 6 years that was counted under cap.

      2. Doesn’t matter.

  9. Sam Ma on January 7, 2015 at 8:59 PM

    Hi Ragu! Thanks for the great post I’m on my STEM OPT extension and will be applying for a H1B in April 2015. What do you think the odds are for a advanced degree application?

    Thanks in advance.

  10. Sri on December 28, 2014 at 8:58 PM

    Hi Raghu this is Sri here I had completed my masters in IT in Australia and am planning to apply h1b visa in 2015 so what r the chances of getting h1b

  11. Denial on September 29, 2014 at 5:04 AM

    Hi Raghu, What are the chances of getting H1B approved after denial comes from USCIS. I dont know company has got many approvals and my educational background and profile was also strong compare with many who got selected. Are there any chance In MTR and Appeal.

    • Raghuram Sukumar on September 30, 2014 at 2:00 PM

      I don’t have stats on that. But, in general unless you have a valid reason and denied with valid reason, it can be challenging and long wait.

  12. Aatif Belal on August 23, 2014 at 12:52 PM

    Hi there!
    I got my name selected in the lottery this year with my petition filed by my employer (IT) but by then I had already planned to pursue MBA and hence took admission in a B-school, thus resigning from the company. I checked my email and I was asked to submit RFE which I obviously couldn’t since I had already left the company.
    Is there a way to leverage my lottery selection? or is it just a waste now?

    • Raghuram Sukumar on August 24, 2014 at 2:43 AM

      I don’t see how your employer would apply for RFE if you have left the company.

  13. Sampath on March 7, 2014 at 7:30 PM

    200,000 plus applicants is not likely. None of the lawyers/bloggers have mentioned anything about the number of applicants they have processed or did any kind of comparison between FY 2014 and FY2015.

    The economy has NOT improved significantly. Claim by first 4 responders is more likely.

    • Please God Please on April 5, 2014 at 11:54 AM

      I think employers must be filling extra petitions to get required no of visa’s… The number could be around 160k due to this hype and panic.

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